Economic Crisis

This post is a bit of a deviation, from the traditional topics I blog about, but I find it to be a topic of interest.
I am NOT qualified to analyze this. This is from light research and I plan to edit\fix this over the next few days. This should provide some overview on the situation, but treat this as possible misinformation for the moment. Please comment with fixes to the analysis, and I am writing this to help clarify it to myself and provide some understanding as to what this mess we are in is. This is simply food for thought.

The Economic "Crisis"

The year is 1998, we want to stimulate the economy so Mr. Greenspan lowers interest rates. This stimulates buying. Great! Consumer spending! So people go out and buy houses, but few can actually pay for the entire house so they get a loan\mortgage. Times are great, so banks decide to start "sub prime lending." Sub prime lending is when a lender gives a loan to a customer with a higher than normal chance of default. then you have a mortgage crisis. Suddenly many of these borrowers default on their houses; because they are not able to pay for them, and they cannot turn a profit\sell the house to pay it back since the value of the houses has fallen from oversupply of real-estate and over purchasing by buyers. This creates a cascade of effects.

"Liquidity Puts" and (Securitization)
Banks use securities. What does this mean in relation to mortgages? Well basically what banks did is collected all these mortgages and loans together in a package. This package was called a C.D.O. (Credit debt obligation). They then let investors invest in these packages, this is the aspect of what the securitization of the mortgages\loans is.
Now the risk of the loans and mortgage are distributed amongst the bank and the investors in the C.D.O. (collection of the mortgages and loans). Then some banks decided to guarantee the money of the investors, this is called a "liquidy put". This allowed the banks to hand out more mortgages and loans at lower rates, and increase sub-prime lending practices. Well as you can see this isn't what we would call a stable practice.

Now you have a situation where the borrowers are defaulting, so the C.D.O is not a very attractive option for investors. So what investors do is pull out. They take advantage of the "liquidy put" options and suddenly banks have borrowers who do not pay, and investors who are pulling out their money. This leaves banks with a bunch of debt and no one willing to buy the C.D.O. This is where the federal bailout comes in. The government buys these securities, and provides banks with stability where as otherwise the bank would collapse.

Consumer spending and Business
Now we have creditors who are calling in their money, and holding what they have. The puts a crunch on many consumers and affects businesses with loans. The consumers now have more trouble getting good loans for items. This means less demand. Less cars, less optional things. So now we have stores like Circuit City getting in severe trouble, because of falling\negative profit margins. Car makers get hit harder. The Detroit Three (GM, Ford, Chrysler) feel a strangle as the market struggles to regain stability. GM now needs federal assistance. If GM fails many of the parts factories the other companies benefit from will also fall. This creates a problem for Ford and Chrysler who are already in trouble. GM's failure would cause unemployment rates to soar several percent.

Federal Bailout - Where does the money come from?
The money for the bailout is paid in part by taxes, and in part through bonds. A bond is a loan from a party to the government. The government then pays the bond plus some interest back at a later date. Many of these bonds are bought by the PRC. Peoples Republic of China. This is where "our children will pay for it." originates from, since it is them who will be paying for the bonds. The fact China is buying these is not a bad thing is some respect. We offer China's economy a lot of benefit from all the products we buy from them. If we suffer they suffer. It is in China's interest for our economy to do well.

If federal assistance is not offered to the companies it is possible a large portion of several industries would collapse. Unemployment rates would soar, not to mention another cascade of effects. So this is why out government decides to intervene in the economy; which is controversial, because it brings forth the question of how involved the government should get.

Nov 16, 2008

My View Of What Is Happening to the World.

These ideas and thoughts are an opinion. They are subject to change. If you see a problem anywhere post a comment, and I will do my best to ammend\address it.

The world is changing.

Integrity

Unimpaired, unadulterated, or genuine state; entire correspondence with an original condition; purity.

I see Integrity as representing a purity of information. After the recent election of Obama, I observed some very interesting effects in people. There is a great hatred from many for Obama. I observed as people began to boil their views on Obama. A few things caught my eye. One person's citation for Obama included that he did not say the pledge of allegiance, and was un-American and a terrorist.

http://thinkonthesethings.wordpress.com/2007/11/02/barack-obama-refused-to-say-the-pledge-of-allegiance-youve-been-played-for-a-daggone-fool/

The pledge of allegiance part; I believe resulted from a chain email. There is another part referring to a terrorist rumor:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bob-cesca/did-you-know-that-senator_b_74710.html

The point I am trying to make is not for or against Obama. It is that if the majority of the people in this world are accepting information as pure without question we have a problem.

Many people are deciding who to put in leadership of the most powerful country in the world, based on rumors, flyers, and chain emails. We are in a different world. It is one full of lies, trickery, and deceit when it comes to information. As consumerism becomes more and more the focus of the world, we are innovating more and more ways to put information into peoples hands. We are also creating ways to do this in extremely convincing ways.

My point is we are becoming more ignorant because of this. There seems to be a ever growing amount of people who accept everything they see. There are people who accept stereotypes as fact, some very close to me i.e. Muslims going to build bombs in mosques. This is sad. When you combine this ignorance with intolerance...Intolerance is amplified.

It is amplified because you have everyone believing different things from all of these sources of information. With these differing beliefs we now have an initial setup. Once we add in arguments and emotions tensions rise. If intolerance is included here, we now have a recipe for instability. As time continues and information becomes more and more dispersed and developed, differing beliefs increase in number. If tolerance is not an attribute of the people, we now have conflict as people fight to resolve that they are in fact right. Conflict increases anger triggers hate and begins the emotional process of mutual destruction. Yea I am beating a dead horse, with this tolerance stuff, however is seems to make so much sense. (At least to me)

Bad information doesn't come in a shady looking box with a warning label. It comes as a delicious entree, mixed with truth, gibberish, and delight.

There is another balancing factor here that is to ensure Integrity in information. Don't assert that everything you see and hear is fact. Learn to ensure integrity with what you choose to base your choices, stances, and beliefs on. If you don't your choices, stances, and beliefs are on a foundation of sand, that will either wash your ideals away or swallow you in your ignorance. Build them on a foundation of rock; a foundation of integrity.

If things don't change or continue to get worse, we may very well be approaching a limit.

Nov 5, 2008

From a Reply to Nihilism - A Renewed Theory On Life

This was an email reply to someone I recently met. I felt it conveyed some new things very well, so I decided to post it here for preponderance.

This post I do not mean to preach. Change views or convert. It is as much for myself as it is for you. Please read objectively. I worried I came across a little preachy in the beginning - just keep reading though) I jumped gears a couple times so do your best to follow.

Zhac, your view of this is a realistic one. I have not encountered Nihilism before. It makes sense to strictly act on what we know. It does not leave room for faith because it does not need faith to solve the world's problems, faith is irrelevant here. I think I have followed that line of thinking many times. I have often wondered if an agnostic view is ideal (I do not want to put words in your mouth, but I am assuming you are not concluding either way as to the existence of something more than the physical world.) You are right, we don't acknowledge ourselves as much as should be as something special or rare.

It bothers me when people thank God for providing the food on the table almost robotically every meal. What is special of this food that warrants a special ear of God to hear? Why thank him for something man did the work to harvest and grow? This almost seems insincere, you did something for yourself don't misplace credit, but at the same time too much concern for yourself is almost destructive. God made the rules, and he may live within everything, but I think people go to far and drift into fanaticism sometimes - and attribute way to much to him. People have there own damn minds, they make their own choices. Bad things happen not because God allows them to, but because people make bad things happen. This is not to say I think thanking God for something is wrong. I just believe followers of God need to put more thought into what they are actually saying to him and what they are actually appreciative for - speaking to him passionately and honestly. I have a lot of different thoughts and views.

I will admit I do choose to believe in God, and in Jesus. I choose to do this, because I do have a choice. God may or may not exist. A world without him, without something more greatly scares me though. This is where a very intelligent person would tell me I am creating my desire for God our of fear out of a need for a greater protection, this is where someone would tell me I am acting out of a fundamental human weakness - using God as a construct to explain what I deny. This is not of direct logic or reason. These statements may be true, but if I take the supposition of the consequence of the opposite - No greater power existing. Life becomes almost worthless. This is where your Nihilism becomes interesting, because while it allows for either outcome (God or no God), it theorizes a life without meaning. What you and I believe matters not, however. We are all just speculating. What matters is in the actions that result.

You are right in saying 100% certainty is a dangerous thing. This is true for less traditional things as well. Very little in this world is 100% certainty, most of it is very high probability theory. For example we cannot know with 100% certainty that the world around us "exists" as a physical entity. We could all be in a simulation for the senses....this is ridiculous from experience, for we have no reason to conclude this nor could we really know if we were. This creates a uncertainty in these principles, that we often treat as certain. So from that perspective what do we really know? This isn't really an argument for God rather an argument of realism. We can't know for certain much of anything. There are some principles that may be arguably certain (2+2=4, I see that apple), but these are self manifested truths of certainty (They are certain because we make them so.)

My point is that debating the arguments of the ages is entertaining, but really is almost irrelevant - because its all speculation. I believe eventually one could conclude that walking the walk is where things really matter. This is the fulfillment of the results of theory (the talk.) The really interesting thing is the "walk" can be equivalent with many different views, and the walk has real world effects and consequences. It is what it is.

Theory might change how one goes about the action and create conflictions, but this is where tolerance really shines. You can't have any great change without a lot of tolerance. Action has shade of Grey. Sometimes it works a little, sometimes a lot. Actions are not right or wrong all the time, they just work better or worse than other actions. The point I am trying to drive is that we can have different beliefs, but similar goals. We can conclude the same actions. This is where if there is a God, I believe he would understand. We can only do our best with what we experience and what we know, I believe in my perspective of God that he would be understanding of this. This makes theory irrelevant, but action very relevant.

Assuming God Exists:
My perspective of God is that he is understanding, all seeing, and merciful. He loves his children as a father loves his family. He cares greatly about them. My perspective is that in this view, God would understand believing differently from your brothers. He would understand children disagreeing on weather a log is brown or black. He would understand disagreements on life. The thing a father does not like to see is hate, fighting, and divide. Those who create it may have to be sent away for the peace of the family.
This is where I might conclude that God cares not what I see, what I believe, or what I think you should believe. What he cares about is that we can still communicate and care about each other through these differences. What he cares about is that we don't destroy each other out of the jealousy of being right or wrong. What he cares about is tolerance.What he cares about is what is in you heart, and what actions you take based on your heart.

Thus it is no longer about weather God exists or does not exist. It is how we act, and how well we "play" together. This is a valid path for many religions, beliefs, philosophies, and ideas. Simply good actions. Actions that unify, and not divide. Actions with foresight and understanding. Actions with tolerance. Actions that improve the world. That feed the hungry. That remove the hate. That remove the genocide. That give the abused\ill\ignored\poor children the life they should have.~ Actions that change the world.

I believe regardless of religion or faith, following the actions in this way, are of benefit. If God is watching I am sure they are heaven bound actions as well :)

These thoughts are not really very heavily developed. I spoke them and thought them as I typed. So I aplogize if what I have said is conveyed wrong or incorrectly. Please ask or propose a clarification if something is not clear. (my disclaimer)

Oct 15, 2008

The World

I want to fix the world.
I want to change it.
I want show people the way.
I want this world to be happy.
I cry for this world and I do not mean this metaphorically.
Genocide, child abuse, intolerance, racism, rape, child soldiers, corruption, greed, power, envy, homicide, hate, ignorance, discrimination, poverty, sickness - this can be changed.
This enrages my soul.
Inside I scream, I yell, as I find my way these things torture my soul ever more.
I want to change it.
Help me change it.
Please don't let me become a dark Shepard.
Please don't let me become a lost Sheep.
Please don't let me lose my way.

Oct 8, 2008

I want.....

I want to help the child in Darfur who is about to be a victim to genocide.
I want to be fully in control and able to provide for my future wife and kids.
I want to be on the right path spiritually.
I want to change the world for the better.
I want to be wise.
I want to ease the suffering of a family in poverty.
I want to save the death of a love because of a loss of means to provide.
I want everyone to have the same minimum standard of life.

But.....
But the children in Darfur are so far away, and the child soldiers in Congo are not to be forgotten.
But the emotions and chaos in my mind hold me back in pursuit of an education to do so,
But there are so many views and conflicts to resolve in the path to what is right.
But the road to hell is paved in good intentions.
But the fool believes he is wise.
But I have not the means to ease my own family's suffering.
But I have not the means to ease my own family's suffering.
But I am lost is in the chaos of the world, unable to undertake such a task.

So...
So I have a goal...
...to become a man of education
...to become a leader.
...to gain motivation from other's weakness.
...to be a jack of all trades.
...to query my soul with every breath.
...to do hard work now when it is here for me to do.
...to sacrifice some of my means to provide life to others.
...to find clarity and focus in times of chaos.

And others....
...have said this before.
...have undertaken this.
...have failed.
...have become corrupt.
...have forgotten who they are.
...have become infactuated with the material.
...have lost themselves to chaos.

And so I do my best. Looking for answers. Asking God to help guide me, knowing that I must walk these steps or another set of steps and that I have a choice. I must find a way. It is my choice to continue this path, and I will continue it.

Sep 21, 2008

Untitled Thoughts

You may detect a few commonalities in this post shared with something else which I will note.
I recommend reading This ("Musings of Self") first to get the foundation of thought this post predicates.

The world I see today is different from the world yesterday. The world has not changed. It is my perspective of it. It's crazy how understanding just a few more fundamental things about yourself and everyone else can make everything seem to make so much more sense. What is even more incredible is where unbelievably provocative implicative ideas, logic, and enlightenments come from. I am not talking of a shallow view of the world when I speak of it in this way. Inversely I am talking about the process of the entire world of humanity as a perfectly reflected image of the individual. The ever so a-like individuals....so predictable. One may ask if humans are so predictable why not predict the future. The problem with seeing the predictability is we cannot see past choices we do not understand (Not enough information to predict it). With enough knowledge about a situation and a person, I propose it would be seemingly obvious as to the ends of the person. Our actions as a group are a reflection of the rash actions of individuals. Certain traits of individuals in a group are exemplified in a group. These traits are not favorable to choice, thought, and free will, but rather these traits are favorable to causality (Cause-and-Effect, Action-Reaction). This concept in itself is fascinating if it is indeed true. I say "indeed true" because at this stage in my development I cannot say I am seeing the real picture, for as before I may be falling to the blindness of ignorance to certain missing concepts. These concepts are fundamental truths of human behavior. I can say with reasonability that most humans if not all are victim to the instinctual effects of causality. As an extension of this Government is also affected by this causality with effects much more exemplified. This I believe may be our end. Life seems to have a natural balance. Things seem to have an auto-correct. I believe it is the causality that promotes this self balancing mechanism (cause-effect, action-reaction.) The anomaly to this balance is a second mechanism that ultimately unbalances this, but is not usually capable of always being expressed. This second mechanism is choice.

This post is an extension of "Musings of Self" and to provide a brief conclusion I believe humans are slaves to the comfortability and autonomy of our emotions and feelings which express causality at its fullest (cause-effect, action-reaction). The other part of that posts concludes that we have do have the power to ultimately control out choices and decisions with our self-will which is weak and usually just passes control to causality instead of careful evaluation and thought of the consequences (which should produce an over-ride of our feelings to do something with a choice to do something we actually want to do.)
Once (if we even can) we learn to control ourselves, think, evaluate, and execute choices, instead of blindly navigating life, it is likely decisions as a group will follow with wise decisions. This would allow the unbalance created by choice to be rebalanced by other choices. This means Goverments and the world in general would fall victim to stability, instead of to a world of imbalances constantly getting slightly more imbalanced.

Choice may not be an unbalance to the self balancing mechanisms of the world, it may just be a problem with causality itself. I have not fully associated Choice as an anomaly in the sense of self balancement. I do believe Choice in itself is an anomaly to the world of predictability and Causality. It is inevitable that if the scale tips too far, a catastrophic recalibration may be required. The larger our species grows the more unstable it becomes, the more sophisticated its action-reactions become - the more the unforeseen consequences are expressed. The main thought that comes to mind as an unforeseen consequence of this nature is Pollution. It is a little known fact that the ocean is every day absorbing more carbon dioxide to balance the earth's atmosphere. The chain consequence of this is that the ocean is becoming more acidic at accelerating rates. There is now a giant trash gyre in the Pacific ocean as well. There is a break point we are approaching where all reefs will die, and the shells of "shelled" fish will dissolve. Algae prevails in such environments. Once an overly massive amount has been absorbed too quickly, it is possible the ocean would also release the absorbed carbon dioxide all at once producing severe effects on the very atmosphere that is vital to our survival. A change of this magnitude would have drastic effects on our life, and may contribute to its end. Our natural resources are running out at the same time. We are nearing the end of the stage where action can have any effect at all. I see this all as a consequence of choices blinded by feelings and autonomy rather than thought-through choices.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2005/mar/30/environment.research

"Already, I can see...an emotion that is already blinding you from the... truth...and there is nothing you can do to stop it. "

"I can see the chain reaction - the chemical precursors that signal the onset of an emotion, designed specifically to overwhelm logic and reason".

"I'm unplugged, apparently free. But appearances can be deceiving"

"The only real truth: Causality... Choice is an illusion"

"We cannot see past the choices we do not understand."

" Because you didn't come here to make a choice, you've already made it. You're here to try to understand why you made it."

The popular movie trilogy the Matrix actually introduced me to some of the concepts I used in this post. These thoughts are written on a whim after a time of thinking and are more to help myself work through this to another chain of concepts\ideas\views. These views are probably inconsistent in many ways or only in some. Please post constructive criticisms and I will note them as such.
The above quotes are from the Matrix Trilogy. (Yes its a sci-fi movie but you will find it has much deeper roots if you research it (some of which are in the vedas).)

"Autonomy, emotions, and feelings are the tools of fate. Choice is the tool of fulfilled dreams."

Aug 10, 2008

Subtle Loss

Subtle Loss

Blindness Spreads
Will Grows Weak
Self Destruction Prevails
The material held higher than life
Build the walls
Hide thyself
Everyone is an enemy
The heart grows cold
A glint of hope remains
In small amounts the warmth of hope hides inside,
Suppressed evermore in time.
Walls ever higher
Responsibility lost
Control released
Instinct Prevails
The power of will failing evermore.

Aug 9, 2008